ATLANTA – This Presidential election year is “unprecedented” in a lot of ways, says Meg Kinnard, national politics reporter for the Associated Press, who lives in Blythewood and is currently traversing the country to report on the national political process.
She covered this year’s first Presidential debate in Atlanta, and will be attending the Republican and Democratic conventions in Milwaukee and Chicago respectively, she says, “and who knows in between.”
The developments she watched firsthand at the debate are having a definite impact on the process.
For one, she says, this is the first time two people who’ve already been elected President once faced off on the debate stage as candidates running against each other for a second term.
“Seeing both of these candidates on stage at the same time not only marks that moment in American history, but also presents a really unique situation for voters,” Kinnard says.
“These are both men who the country has elected at different points in time, and so now really to see them making those singular arguments as to why the other shouldn’t be allowed to do it again, a lot of it is politics as usual, but there’s also a very different flavor to the way it’s playing out because this particular circumstance is just something that we haven’t ever seen.”
This debate was also different in other ways from the last time Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced each other on a debate stage – and it’s raised a significant set of issues.
“We’ve seen for months, and even years, concern about Joe Biden’s age, and if he’s really up to the task of winning re-election and serving out a second term,” she says.
“Some of the pauses and trailed off thoughts from his answers in the debate really only added fuel to some of those fires, coupled with the fact that, at least stylistically, Donald Trump remained somewhat even-tempered. His team had been telling him they wanted him to come off as seeming Presidential. At least at some times, he appeared to accomplish that.”
This contrast in how the two men came across was visible, she says – another layer of difference beyond their obvious differences on policy.
“Clearly everything is still kind of evolving,” she says about the impact this might have.
While Republicans have already questioned Biden’s ability to lead, she says his performance in the debate has also left many in his own party wondering whether they feel he’s the best candidate to defeat Trump in November’s general election.
It’s something that may be of interest to voters in places like South Carolina, where Biden’s big win in the Democratic primary four years ago helped him on his journey to the presidency.
Kinnard says this year’s race is also kind of “flipping the script” from the last one because this time it’s Biden rather than Trump who’s seeking to transition from a first term as President directly into a second.
“The tenor of how each of them is approaching their campaign is played out in what we saw in Atlanta,” she says.
“Joe Biden is in defense [mode] both in terms of defending his administration’s accomplishments or inability to achieve all of the accomplishments that they have wanted, and Donald Trump’s doing kind of two things: reminding voters of what he argues were his successes in office and also, to his mind, trying to make the argument that things are worse during Joe Biden’s presidency than they were during his own administration.”
As for Robert F. Kennedy, the Democrat-turned-independent who got attention early on for the amount of support he’s generated, she says she wouldn’t be surprised if he follows the pattern of similarly situated candidates in history.
“Historians tell me that with third-party campaigns, it is very typical to see their numbers dwindle as the summer goes on,” she says, “as the general election gets closer, and as voters are more tuned in and are really thinking about a binary choice as opposed to a multiple-choice option.”
But, she says, that doesn’t mean Kennedy won’t impact the election: If he gains ballot access in about seven key swing states, he could potentially make a difference in those individual states, impacting the Electoral College results – and therefore the outcome of the election.
“I’ve been following the Kennedy campaign. I’ve traveled to various places around the country with them, and while he continues to make the argument that he believes that he can win the 2024 general election, I think what’s most important to keep track of is the difference he can possibly make in the election outcome,” Kinnard says.
“Kennedy has been portrayed as a spoiler, somebody who is going to be preventing one or the other two major party candidates from being able to win because he’s also an option for voters.”
What she’s heard from voters she’s talked to in South Carolina: “They’re concerned about the issues they hold dear – but also about which candidate they think will make their economic situation better.”
As for Biden’s poor showing at the debate, Kinnard noted that the 81-year-old sitting President has said publicly that anyone who’s questioning his ability to serve out another term as President should challenge him at the Democratic Convention.
“Who knows if we’ll actually see that,” she says. “That sounds like it would make for an interesting week in Chicago but also throw everything into a little bit of chaos.”
